The New Peak Season Playbook for 2025

How can freight forwarders protect their margins and keep operations steady when the pressure hits its peak?

Everyone knows that when capacity gets tight, the ones who control the wheels control the rates, as one of our customers eloquently put it during a recent industry panel. And that’s exactly what’s happening as we head toward peak season 2025, and even into 2026. 

The question is, how can forwarders plan ahead without watching their profits disappear?

The holiday season is around the corner, and with it comes the familiar surge in demand. But 2025 is shaping up to be anything but a typical peak season. For the transport and logistics industry, Christmas is no longer just a busy stretch of the calendar. It’s a full-scale stress test for the entire supply chain.

This year, the challenges are piling up: volatile markets, a growing driver shortage, unpredictable fuel costs, and global instability that’s reshaping trade flows. Navigating peak season now takes more than experience. It takes data, insight, and the agility to adapt on the fly.

From this article, you will learn

➡ How peak season 2025 will differ from previous years
➡ What real financial risks are posed by driver shortages and tight capacity
➡ What freight forwarders can expect in demand and transport rates
➡ How to prepare strategically to protect margins
➡ What technologies help overcome market volatility
➡ What the forecasts for 2026 look like — with data and market scenarios

How peak season 2025 will differ from previous years

According to Transport Intelligence reports (2025), peak season in Europe is becoming increasingly tight, and even minor supply disruptions can have serious consequences for the entire market. (Transport Intelligence, 2025)

It is driven by seasonal shopping, holiday promotions, and the impact of the e-commerce market, which in recent years has shifted the start of the peak from December to November. During this time, there is a surge in orders both for domestic and international transport, which creates natural market tensions.

In practice, this means:

• Fleet demand can rise by several dozen percent compared to the annual average.
• Spot rates and contract transport rates increase as carriers can select the most profitable offers.
• Order fulfillment times lengthen, especially on high-intensity routes (DACH, Benelux, Italy).

For freight forwarders, peak season means not only increased operational workload but also higher risk: insufficient fleet capacity can result in missed deadlines, delivery delays, and loss of customers. Therefore, proper preparation and anticipating market trends is key to maintaining supply chain continuity and minimizing financial risks.

The growing strategic role of logistics

The latest data from Eurostat show that in 2024 the EU’s road freight transport performance reached about 1,869 billion tonne-kilometres, up 0.6 % from 2023.

As forwarders plan for peak season, it’s critical to recognise that while the overall number moved up slightly, the underlying patterns are uneven across major markets, and this has direct implications for companies that manage cross-border flows, contract carriers, and spot capacity.

Here are a few key market insights:

• Poland retained the largest share in 2024 at roughly 20% % of EU total tonne-kilometres, ahead of Germany (15.0 %) and Spain (14.5 %).
• Germany, France, Spain, Poland and Italy together accounted for about two-thirds of EU road freight tonnage in 2024.
• While tonnage fell 0.7 % in 2024 compared to 2023 in the EU overall, tonne-kilometres edged up, signalling that fewer trips may be covering longer distances or heavier loads.
• Some national markets are diverging: for example Spain recorded growth in both tonnage and tonne-kilometres, while in Germany the decline continued amid economic headwinds.

What this means for freight forwarders:

• When demand shifts or volumes stagnate, forwarders who rely solely on historical lanes or standard carrier-lists may face margin pressure or capacity bottlenecks. The spot market can offer relief from such constraints.
• Knowing which markets are growing (e.g., Spain, some CEE countries) and which are contracting gives you a proactive advantage in positioning your network and carriers.
• Digital platforms that offer real-time access to capacity and verified carrier networks – such as Trans.eu – can help forwarders tap into emerging opportunities, adjust lanes quickly and diversify risk.

By understanding these macro-trends and leveraging the right networks and tools, forwarders can move from reactive to strategic – protecting margins and maintaining service continuity, even when volumes shift or markets tighten.

Driver shortages: the operational bottleneck for forwarders and carriers alike

Driver availability remains one of the most significant constraints facing road freight in Europe. According to the International Road Transport Union (IRU), there were approximately 426,000 unfilled truck-driver positions across Europe by 2024. 

This gap is not just a matter of numbers, it fundamentally limits fleet capacity, raises unit costs and can erode service reliability when demand peaks.

Key market-specific signals:

• In Germany, reports indicate a shortage of around 70,000 drivers, with an additional ~20,000 required each year to maintain capacity.
  
• In the Czech Republic and neighbouring CEE markets, shortfalls are also acute, with around 20,000 drivers missing in freight transport alone.
  
• The workforce is ageing, with more than a third of EU truck drivers aged 55 or over.

For forwarders, the driver shortage translates directly into lost capacity and rising costs. When demand surges, limited fleet availability can quickly lead to unfilled loads and shrinking margins. With carriers setting the terms, access to a broader, verified network becomes critical.

Flexible sourcing and digital verification make it easier to react fast and keep operations moving – even when drivers are in short supply.

Warehouse trends and e-commerce shifts

While forwarders face capacity pressure, warehouse operators are dealing with the opposite challenge: oversupply. After years of rapid e-commerce growth, 2025 marks a cooling phase. Inventory built up during past disruptions has left more space idle or sublet across Europe.

In Poland, the warehouse vacancy rate reached 7.6%, the highest since 2020, while e-commerce’s share of retail sales fell from 9.5% in 2022 to 7.7% in mid-2025 (Cushman & Wakefield, 2025). Similar slowdowns are visible in Germany and France, where online retail volumes have stabilised post-pandemic.

For forwarders, this shift means greater fluctuation in storage demand and distribution volumes – and the need for tighter coordination between warehousing and transport.

Scenarios for Peak Season 2025

Forecasts suggest that peak season 2025 may be one of the softest in recent years. Persistent inflation, slower economic growth, and cautious consumer spending are all dampening demand. Many shippers have already built up higher inventory levels earlier in the year, which may limit transport needs in the final quarter.

Research by MTM Logix (2025) shows that order and replenishment cycles will mirror 2024, when the seasonal peak brought only a modest rise in shipment volumes. Similarly, a Logistics Management survey found that 35% of companies expect reduced activity this season, 30% expect stability, and just 35% anticipate growth.

Yet forwarders know that even a “quiet” peak can shift suddenly. Regulatory changes, production disruptions, or a sharp rise in online sales can all trigger short-term spikes in demand. The key will be agility – maintaining visibility over carrier networks and reacting fast when the market turns.

Platforms like Trans.eu give forwarders this flexibility: real-time access to capacity and instant load allocation across Europe make it easier to adapt, protect margins, and seize opportunities even in an unpredictable market.

How to prepare for the peak – 5 key steps

Peak season planning starts even a year in advance, and the pros know that already. Logistics companies analyze historical data, market trends, and customer sales forecasts to predict shipment volumes and transport demand. During this period, workforce management, warehouse infrastructure, and IT systems must operate flawlessly. Any delivery delay can result in lost clients and reputational damage.

1. Planning and organization

A stable peak season begins with resource planning and team preparation. Key elements include scheduling, fast onboarding of new drivers, and quick operational training. Analysis of demand forecasts and spot market prices helps predict when fleet shortages may occur and what rates to expect.

2. Strategic management of offers and customers

At this stage, order selection is critical. Not every order is worth accepting. Planning shipments in advance with customers limits last-minute requests. A dual strategy, based on both contracts + spot market, helps maintain service quality and margin control during demand spikes.

3. Process automation and transport order optimization

Integration with transport exchanges and customer systems allows rapid reallocation of loads between contracts and spot orders. Algorithms accelerate transport sourcing and minimize errors in carrier selection, crucial when handling high order volumes in a short time.

4. Supplier diversification and market flexibility

Access to a wide carrier base in real time protects against driver shortages. Digital tools verify carrier reliability and help quickly scale fleets without sacrificing quality.

5. Margin protection and pricing risk control

During peak season, rates rise and carriers dictate conditions. Early introduction of the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) and clear communication with clients helps maintain contract profitability. Constant margin monitoring and decisions not to accept unprofitable orders protect financial results.

Peak season is a real financial risk. Without planning and tools, rates grow faster than your margin. With a good strategy, peak season becomes the most profitable time of the year.

Technology trends and innovations

Technology has become the backbone of modern forwarding, not an add-on, but the infrastructure that keeps operations moving when markets tighten and demand surges.

Platforms like Trans.eu bring these capabilities together in a single, easy-to-use environment designed for forwarders who need to act fast. 

Through one platform, users can search and verify carriers, negotiate, and confirm loads without switching between tools or relying on endless phone calls. Smart filters and dynamic pricing accelerate load matching across Trans.eu’s network of 25,000+ verified carriers, while multilingual chat with built-in translation removes communication barriers in cross-border operations.

Automation further reduces manual workload. Features such as FreightAI and Smart Freight Importer convert unstructured load data or spreadsheets into ready-to-publish offers, helping dispatchers handle more shipments with less effort. Each transaction is secured, documented, and protected, giving both sides confidence that deals are transparent and payments are guaranteed.

In practice, these innovations allow forwarders to process more orders, respond faster to changing capacity, and minimize operational risk — turning technology into a real buffer against the chaos of peak season.

Beyond the peak: what 2026 will bring

After a turbulent 2025, the European road transport market is set for gradual recovery. Forecasts point to volumes approaching 1,945 billion tonne-kilometres in 2026, supported by stabilising demand and renewed investment in logistics infrastructure. (Eurostat, 2025)

Growth will vary by region. Western Europe may rebound slowly, while Central and Eastern Europe could benefit from nearshoring and production shifts. For forwarders, the next challenge will be balancing cost control with flexibility as trade routes and customer expectations evolve.

Closing thoughts: from Pressure to performance

Peak season 2025 will test capacity, pricing, and patience, but it will also sharpen operational discipline across the industry. Forwarders who treat volatility as an opportunity to refine their processes and strengthen digital coordination will emerge stronger.

Resilience in 2026 won’t depend on scale alone, but on the ability to act faster, decide smarter, and stay connected in a market that rewards precision over size.